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I didn't ask which answer is right... Right? 
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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Good point!
Slogans aren't solutions.
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e) +++ Divide By Cucumber Error. Please Reinstall Universe And Reboot +++
"These people looked deep within my soul and assigned me a number based on the order in which I joined."
- Homer
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Thanks for that, Richard. 
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Well - if we ignore the values - then it's 25% (a, b, c, or d).
Certainly that's how it would be graded on a multiple choice test.
| Ravings en masse^ |
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| "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein | | "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010 |
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W∴ Balboos wrote: if we ignore the values
Why should we? It is A question not ANY question...
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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We ignore the values because you said that we select one at random.
Thus, we make a presumption that one of the answers is correct.
Secondly, we select one at random. Thus, we make no consideration of their values or even an implied question.
Therefore, with four selections we've a 25% chance of selecting correctly.
| Ravings en masse^ |
|---|
| "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein | | "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010 |
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But two of the answers are the same. So if that's the right answer, you've got twice as much chance of picking it.
"These people looked deep within my soul and assigned me a number based on the order in which I joined."
- Homer
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That's true if all else were equal and no consideration was given to it being multiple choice.
However - that's a vagary in the question: if it's an absolute answer then there's a weighted probability of guessing correctly. If it's graded as multiple choice, the values are irrelevant, only the number of choices.
| Ravings en masse^ |
|---|
| "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein | | "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010 |
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Random - the way to choose the answer, but then one have to decide if the answer is right or not, like in a exam you wasn't prepared for...
Now for finding the chance to pick the right, you have to know which is it... For instance if the right answer is a) and c), you have more chance than with b) and d)...
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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You're now implying further knowledge than would be conducive to a random selection. Your question is framed so as to be a multiple-choice which implies only one correct selection.
BUT, if I were in a calculation mood, I'd solve it by summing each individual probability and then dividing by all choices (none of which diminish the pool size):
( 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/2 + 1/4)/4 = 1.5/4 or 0.375 . It's just that, as written, that would not be correct. The question needs some refinement if you're going for a calculated answer.
Picking at random implies each answer is discrete and correctness checked by a selection and not a value. So, 0.25 is the answer as the question is written.
| Ravings en masse^ |
|---|
| "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein | | "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010 |
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There is no 'further knowledge' here!!! Everything is known! The question and the possible choices too...
And I didn't asked to pick the right answer from a-d, but to answer the question...
W∴ Balboos wrote: Picking at random implies each answer is discrete and correctness checked by a selection and not a value.
Totally wrong! It implies nothing (or maybe it implies that some used to come to exams unprepared and failed back to the old method of game play). It was true if I were stating, that by random pick you can get a right answer...
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote: Totally wrong!
OK - then let me go into my (one-question!) exam totally unprepared.
I pick an answer at random (as you stipulated). How is this going to be graded? What is you method of defining the correct answer amongst(a, b, c, d). If a, b, c, or d is how the answer is stipulated, does your grading schema allow for either of two answers have the potential of being correct?
Had you simply said: if you guess at the answer (not randomly guess) - I would agree with you. You have completely redefined the decision making process with that word: none. The only escape is to not grade based upon a, b, c or d, but on a specific value.
This, alas, is a semantic disagreement.
| Ravings en masse^ |
|---|
| "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein | | "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010 |
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Let put it straight - I'm evil and put up a question with no correct answers, but I didn't asked you to answer it, but tell me what are the chances to answer it...
Pay attention - you still try to pick the right answer from a-d, but no one asked for it!!!
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote: Pay attention - you still try to pick the right answer from a-d, but no one asked for it!!!
NO NO NO NO NO !
That's the point I'm making! I didn't determine or even try to determine which is correct. In fact, in my original reply, I even said the answers themselves were irrelevant!
All I took into account is the (1) assumption that there is a right answer and that I picked one of the selections at random. Four selections of (for all I care) arbitrary values mean 25% chance of matching the desired selection!
| Ravings en masse^ |
|---|
| "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein | | "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010 |
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W∴ Balboos wrote: I even said the answers themselves were irrelevant!
And I told too - NO! This is A question with their definite answers! So it is more than relevant. In fact the only relevant thing... Otherwise it was a beginners course of statistics and combinations...
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote: Otherwise it was a beginners course of statistics and combinations...
Or, as I see it, a problem in math analysis (problem solving).
We'll not agree (that's OK) but
- I see your question very differently than you intended it. Calculation the statistics (beyond one random choice of four) is a red-herring to distract the newbie at math analysis.
- You, on the other hand, have a different view, altogether, on what is being asked: what is the chance of randomly selecting an answer that is correct if it is one of the shown answers and actual value (whatever it is) is relevant.
So long as we (I hope) see how we each view the question, we can let it rest.
| Ravings en masse^ |
|---|
| "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein | | "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010 |
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I'm going to have some chocolate chalva on that 
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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0% because the correct answer is not on the list.
If 0% was the correct answer then there would be a 25% of picking it at random, in which case the answer would be 25% and there would be a 50% chance of picking the correct answer, in which case there would be a 25% chance of picking the correct answer ...
Phil
The opinions expressed in this post are not necessarily those of the author, especially if you find them impolite, inaccurate or inflammatory.
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Stack overflow ...
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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Since you've 4 options, and only one is correct (b), we've a one in four chances of getting it right.
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If b) is correct, than there is no chance at all to pick the right answer, however you state that there is a 25% chance, so b) is not the correct answer... But to be fair - no one asked you to tell which answer is correct...
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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There is no question; there are only four naked answers cowering behind Arabic numerals and per-cent glyphs.
Two of the answers are wearing the same nakedness, and hate each other, but they hate 0% even more because of (what they call) its pornographic nihilism, however, their ultimate scorn is reserved for 50% which they regard as a traitorous compromise.
Watch for 100% to make its move soon.
cheers, Bill
«There is a spectrum, from "clearly desirable behaviour," to "possibly dodgy behavior that still makes some sense," to "clearly undesirable behavior." We try to make the latter into warnings or, better, errors. But stuff that is in the middle category you don’t want to restrict unless there is a clear way to work around it.» Eric Lippert, May 14, 2008
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Musical vegetables: Lettuce Turnip the Beets.
Bad command or file name. Bad, bad command! Sit! Stay! Staaaay...
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