Predicting Near Term COVID Death Rates

Don Kackman

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2 Jan 2021CPOL1 min read

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Using previous case and fatality numbers, predict future death rates based on current case counts

There is an offset between when a COVID case is reported and an eventual death. Using Python, SKLearn and a Jupyter notebook, find the offset in days between the two that results in the best correlation. The resulting linear equation can then accurately predict the number of future deaths based on already reported cases.

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This article, along with any associated source code and files, is licensed under The Code Project Open License (CPOL)

Written By

Don Kackman

Team Leader Starkey Laboratories

United States

The first computer program I ever wrote was in BASIC on a TRS-80 Model I and it looked something like:

10 PRINT "Don is cool"
20 GOTO 10

It only went downhill from there.

Hey look, I've got a blog

Predicting Near Term COVID Death Rates

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