Excel how to distribute 2 percentage fields between 3 fields

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I'm having a difficulty to figure out how to distribute 2 percentages fields in 3. Let's say we have 2 teams. I think they both have chances 50/50 means that the draw has the percent of 50, 25 for the first team and 25 for the second team. So i'm stuck in finding the formula to calculate Draw chances. Another example, if i believe that first team win percent is 70% and second team win is 30%. What would be the % for the draw?

Here's a screenshot of the Available and Required data. As you can see, i have an input data only for Team A and Team B. Is there a way to find the Draw value?

Here's an image[]

What I have tried:

I have tried to divide each team % by 3 and multiply by 2, then deduct sum of these results from 100%, but obviously, in every case I get 33% for the draw. For example I get 33% for the draw in case if chances of both teams are 50/50, instead of 50 for the draw, 25 for first team and 25 for the second team.

1) TEAM A % = TEAM A / 3 * 2
2) TEAM B % = B / 3 * 2
3) DRAW = 100% - (TEAM A % + TEAM B %)

However DRAW according to the above is always 33%. For example, In case of TEAM A = 50% and TEAM B = 50% according to the above formula I get the following result: TEAM A = 33%, DRAW = 33% and TEAM B = 33%, while more reliable result I am trying to obtain would be TEAM A = 25%, DRAW = 50% and TEAM B% = 25%.

Posted 5-Jan-21 22:44pm

Zaur Bahramov

Updated 6-Jan-21 0:52am

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Maciej Los 6-Jan-21 6:45am

If i understand you well, you're looking for Hypergeometric distribution[^], which describes the probability of k successes in n draws. Am i right?

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Maciej Los · Answer 1 · 2021-01-06T00:52:00

I'd suggest to read this: Odds Probability Calculator[^]

Quote:
Probability Formulas:

This calculator will convert "odds of winning" for an event into a probability percentage chance of success.

Odds, are given as (chances for success) : (chances against success) or vice versa.

If odds are stated as an A to B chance of winning then the probability of winning is given as PW = A / (A + B) while the probability of losing is given as PL = B / (A + B).

So... i'd store all wins per team:

Game No. Count of wins	Sum of wins		Chances for win	
		TEAM A	TEAM B	TEAM A	TEAM B	TEAM A	TEAM B
1		1		0		1		0		100,00%	0,00%
2		1		0		2		0		50,00%	0,00%
3		0		1		2		1		0,00%	100,00%
4		0		1		2		2		0,00%	50,00%
5		1		0		3		2		33,33%	0,00%
6		0		1		3		3		0,00%	33,33%