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jesarg wrote: it would take years of horrible decisions (bordering upon malicious sabotage) to
kill their development tools division, and I'd have plenty of forewarning if it
was happening
There's a positive feedback loop involved where companies start hiring for the non-MS-dependent technologies, and developers start to retool for them. MS has some control over the ramp-up of that feedback loop, and their recent decisions that piss off developers, and the press they're getting over it, is only accelerating the ramp-up.
When the loop gets going in earnest, MS technologies will become like Cobol, possible to stay employed with them as your exclusive skill set, but a shrinking pool of jobs for you to choose from.
We can program with only 1's, but if all you've got are zeros, you've got nothing.
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craigsaboe wrote: Am I the only one who keeps seeing these ridiculous articles about Microsoft
dying,
I see all sorts of ridiculous predictions about the future about all sort of things.
The only difference between the same things that occurred 30 years ago is that the internet makes it possible for many more people to spout these predictions.
The one thing that one can be sure about people that make predictions in writing is that if they are not super rich then one can ignore what they say. After all if they were able to make predictions with even a slight bit of an edge then they could be making money in some sort of investment strategy (versus writing which almost always pays almost nothing.)
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Very true... and it makes it possible for people, e.g. me, to be subjected to many more of them. 
The problem is when asinine claims become some sort of "inherent truth" or "common knowledge", and anyone trying to sound intelligent spouts off the same thing whenever Apple, Android or Microsoft come up. Some people don't care, some pity the poor idiot, and some people like me react as if we just saw the ratings for "Duck Dynasty".
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 I agree with the (implicit) thesis in your post: MS is not dying. I do think it, like every other major player, is constantly changing and transforming: we, in the peanut-gallery, see the internal, psychodramatic, events, like Sinofsky's abrupt technocide, and Ballmer's death-by-365-cut's slower one, leap-out at us, as both fiction-myth, and reality: seismographs don't register the slow creep of tectonic plates.
And, I share your conviction that a solid future for the enterprise side of MS, along with MS Office, and SharePoint, .NET, SQL, etc. ... in some form ... is a good bet. I also think the "cluster" of MS stuff related to gaming including XBox, Kinect (?), DirectX, etc., kind of has a "life of its own." And, the whole Office suite, in my mind, has a strong base that spans enterprise, and consumer, space.
The interesting question, to me, is: to what extent can MS, as a whole, as it kind-of is, now, survive without a kind of marketplace synergy between consumer-side status, and enterprise-side status ?
I believe I am an active consumer of "news," and I believe to the extent I consciously choose "who" I attend to, I'm not in a passive role, as the use of the word "subjected" in one of the replies on this thread, implies.
But, in the arena of the workplace, you may, indeed, be "subjected" to the decisions of others that influence what type of hardware, OS, applications, development stack, etc., you must use. I'm out of that loop, permanently.
And, depending on the future of the hardware and software tools you use today ... which may be directly related to you and your family's financial future ... I do understand the vital importance of keeping "up to date."
I went through a real struggle about whether to switch my focus from WinForms to WPF a few years ago. The powerful vector-based graphics engine, and great binding facilities in WPF were like siren-songs calling to me, but my experience in trying development was a nest of miseries, and having to touch XAML seemed to me like reverting to making fire with sparks from flints. So, today, I'm glad I didn't switch to WPF, because its future still seems uncertain to me (I'm still waiting for the news that Pete O'Hanlon mentioned was going to break some months ago, about WPF's future). Of course, my personal decision about which MS development tool to use is about as important as a gnat on an elephant in terms of MS's future .
I imagine a herd of elephants stampeding in a confined space, while outside their enclosure professional touts sell predictions on which elephants will survive, and those predictions are then debated, ad nauseam, by a mob of technicians of elephant warfare, surrounded by a vast swarm of "the rest of us," as Steve Jobs liked to use that phrase.
The interesting thing, though, is the secret underground cables connected to everyone watching, and the elephants.
To the extent the swarm comes to believe in certain elephants increased odds of survival, and, to the extent the technicians then are swayed by the collective sentiments of the swarm: the elephants are fed more energy through the secret cables.
But ... there's a missing party at the stampede: imagine a certain rarefied class of people who sit in privileged high-platforms, far above the technicians, and the swarm. Some of them may have a background as technicians, many may not. This managerial class operates with a logic of its own, and are at the mercy of unseen forces emanating from "shareholders." And, these folks are equipped with high-powered elephant rifles that can easily kill the stampeding beast of their choice.
What happens if the managerial class is more influenced by the swarm than the technicians, or, at random, make their own choices ?
Further complicating the circus that surrounds the stampede, is the fact that paid shills working for individual elephants are moving through the crowds planting false rumors, handing out candy to the swarm, and trying hard to seduce the technicians, and continually delivering gifts, bribes, and various forms of seduction to the high-and-mighty up on the raised-platforms. And another type of shill, unseen in the crowd, is operating off the books trying to hack the software and hardware that computes and distributes the stream-of-beliefs harvested from all the groups outside the stampede, to tap into the hidden cables that connect to the elephants, and plant false signals, and warp existing signals.
What to do ? Buy some pop-corn, and watch ?
What to buy ?
bill
Google CEO, Erich Schmidt: "I keep asking for a product called Serendipity. This product would have access to everything ever written or recorded, know everything the user ever worked on and saved to his or her personal hard drive, and know a whole lot about the user's tastes, friends and predilections." 2004, USA Today interview
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It does make me wonder what goes through the (presumably vacant) heads of people who loudly announce "Microsoft's profits are down to umpty-tum billions, this year, so they must be on the verge of bankruptcy!"
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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Its headline grabbing no more.
I read an 8.1 review today (from the Code Project newsletter) where the reviewer was basically just trying to get readers, while imposing an unbelievably biased opinion.
I live in the hopes that one day reviewers/bloggers and general tech writers will stop pandering to to the lowest common denominator.
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I'm skipping the InfoWorld links in the newsletter, no value added.
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Agreed, it's like MS got obsessed with competing with Apple & Google, totally losing sight of what they HAVE in-hand.
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I disagree, see the BYOD movement, Apple gained foothood in the enterprise world through privately owned iThings.
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Yet, Microsoft's market share in Desktop/Laptop computing and enterprise servers are still almost at "monopoly levels".
And a significant portion of enterprise-level iOS applications connect to Microsoft servers. (Ours does)
Still they try so hard to be "trendy" that they are totally ignoring the needs of their massive desktop/laptop user base.
All I'm saying is that they should be focusing on playing on their strengths.
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Apple has nowhere to move UP from there though, in an enterprise setting... your execs can walk around on iCrap all day long, but even they (hopefully) aren't pushing to put Apple in your datacenter. Apple isn't making that push itself! Give them credit, they even decided to cut the xServe line + related, despite the fact there were some devoted fans out there, and focus solely on the consumer side.
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 No, I think they called out for pizza and ordered the PayPerView event.
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May be you didn't mention, but MS is dead at least 10 years. That your "enterprise" is just another market. But playing in enterprise doesn't mean you're invulnerable! Look at SUN - biggest guys after IBM, they f** up a whole business, disgracefully selling it to... who? Oracle! Ridiculous DBMS "self-world" manufacturer, unrecognizable until last 15 years. Now we see TWO anchors on the raft - java and oracle, both keeping Oracle behind.
Desktop was the biggest MS business (may be not by money, but STABILITY due to the mass of customers). Now desktop is stuck with the cloud pig and tablet hype. In 5 years all this cr@p will fly away, leaving MS with sh*ty Windows 8-9-10 and ridiculous Surface. RIP...
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Who knows ... but I do like the lawn comment 
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Is 31 too young to start on my "damn kids" rants?
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31 is plenty young for anything. Oh, wait, is that 0x31?
(I give: wtf is "0!0110!"?
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"0!0110!"... In my hysteria, I may have lapsed into binary for a moment there.
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craigsaboe wrote: Am I the only one who keeps seeing these ridiculous articles about Microsoft dying, and reading only blindered screeds about how Microsoft's CONSUMER efforts are an utter failure, and wanting to scream, "LOOK AT THE ENTERPRISE MARKET, YOU MORONS!!!"?
They may not be messing up in the Enterprise market, but I can tell you - as an independent developer they're sure making it easy for me to lock down my tool set and not spend any more money on their stuff. The 2008 level products are about as far as I need go at this point. I develop for the desktop and web and nothing they're showing lately compels me to spend one red cent on upgrading.
-cb
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Just a couple of points.
Microsoft and enterprise: Explain Windows8/8.1, which appears to be consumer-focused, not enterprise-focused. Now, you might reply, most enterprises are going to wait until Windows9 or whatever it is called. But, Windows9 is going to have to pick up where Windows8 left off, and if Windows8 is consumer-focused, how will WIndows9 not be?
True, Azure is an emerging strength for MS, but how much revenue does it generate? As much as Office? As much as Windows?
Second point: Go read "In Search of Stupidity" by Merrill Chapman; observe how supposedly successful companies, with the future laid out before them, can overnight (or over a short period of time) just disappear from the tech landscape. Ask yourself if MS is making the same kind of mistakes.
Nobody really knows if MS will "die". There are many kinds of death besides bankruptcy. MS can dwindle into insignificance, occupying a narrow niche that other companies don't care about. MS could be purchased and subsumed into another company, to name only two of them.
Again, nobody knows. But, if MS continues to make blunders in the consumer market, and consumers are notoriously fickle and unpredictable, then MS is in definite jeopardy. Don't forget it was consumers who launched the original personal computer business back in the 80's. Consumers stampeded and business followed. Maybe consumers will do it again in the 10's.
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All these people who writes that type of articles are CONSUMERS. They carry their toys with them and they are happy. All they do all the time on their iPads, iPhones, Android, WP devises - Facebook, Twitter, Texting, playing games. They do not realize that so many businesses are heavily relying on Microsoft and its infrastructure.
They do not understand, that many companies still need GIS, ERP systems just simply provide 3G, Wi-Fi for their toys and deliver gas/hydro to simply charge their small devices. There are some system in place ambulance, police and other services rely on. If Microsoft dies (all these Apple/Android fan boys are cheering for) are going to be huge circumstances. Many people are going to loose their jobs, many businesses would struggle to support their services and provide services to their customers. Our GIS, ERP systems are built on MS infrastructure. What happens if MS dies? In our case, approximately 250,000 customers (most of them CONSUMERS) will struggle. Just my thoughts.
SergoT
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It's a new era in computing and in every new era throughout history you will find this radical people who want to the new thing and throw everything else away Microsoft is doing perfectly fine on the all levels.
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Actually, what gets to me most in this context is that the feed provider - e.g., CodeSource, does not filter for source bias. The negative reporting is published from the same sources, day after day after day. The basis for most of the negative claims are sophomoric analyses of consumer mentality, rather than insightful commentary on the competing visions and technologies of Microsoft and its competitors.
Even when technical analysis is provided, it often sniffs around at the edges of the technology, looking for marginal differentiators, rathering that tackling the bigger issues of integration and extensibility.
C'mon, CodeSource: I'm sure that you can do better than this! Spare us the pithy one-liners and do some source validation!
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If you ask me, it's not that their consumer products are not good, cool or slick, is that their PR department and the distribution channels are useless, many of their consumer products are launched either on the US only or in a narrow set of countries, here for example I would have liked to get my hands on a Zune HD, but it never came here officially (I could have got it on Ebay, but the price would have raised significantly), recently, I wanted to change my computer and I was looking to get a Surface Pro, but even now, it's not available officially here.
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I didn't go there above, but you are ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. Microsoft's PR and Marketing people bear a HUGE amount of responsibility for the failure of Microsoft's consumer hardware offerings. I was the one guy who got an original black Zune 30GB - Xmas gift. Still have it, use it occasionally. It was good hardware, not at all what you'd expect from MS. The HD upgrade made it even nicer - and it had a really slick OS on it, too!
Last month I upgraded my phone - initially picked up a Lumia 920. I thought it was a GREAT phone. I had been using an iP4 and an Atrix 3G, and between the three I can honestly say that I strongly prefer WP8 over iOS and Android. That said, before the week was up I went back and traded for an iP5. I did so for a combination of reasons, but they can all be boiled down to this: I have a lot more faith in Apple continuing to execute its "vision" than I do in Microsoft executing it's own.
They frankly suck at marketing to the consumer. The Surface ads were their worst yet. Short of having Lindsay Lohan go around promoting Surface 2, I don't know where else they'd go from here. Who knows where they would be, had someone competent actually run that marketing dept?
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