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as the ease of code-a-little-test-a-little development for DirectX and COM interactions has still not caught up with VB6.
You have that backwards. VB6 hasn't, and never will, catch up with DirectX and COM.
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I want to make sure that I buy hardware that will support VB6/DirectX 8.
This is also backwards. The hardware is really never a consideration when it comes to VB6 and DirectX. The problem is going to be Windows. You can get VB6 to work on Windows, just don't expect a smooth ride to get there. The old VB6 world was left behind quite a long time ago.
DirectX 8.1 compatibility shouldn't be a problem today, but don't count on that being the case in the future.
By not moving up to a modern language, you're just delaying the inevitable and you can only delay that so long. If you want to keep this app around, you WILL end up rewriting it.